{"id":7607,"date":"2026-04-17T20:34:13","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T19:34:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/intelligence.supplyframe.com\/?p=7607"},"modified":"2026-04-20T15:15:41","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T14:15:41","slug":"industry-experts-dram-shortage-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/intelligence.supplyframe.com\/fr\/industry-experts-dram-shortage-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"Industry Experts Warn Current DRAM Shortage Could Last Until 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"

According to SK hynix chairman Chey Tae-won, the current memory shortages impacting the global electronics landscape could last for another four to five years. Speaking at NVIDIA\u2019s GTC event in California in March, Chey outlined the reasons why this may be the case<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2026, it\u2019s estimated that data centers will take up 70% of total high-end memory supply<\/a>. As a result, this projection is quickly gaining traction as AI-driven memory demand shows no signs of slowing down. Join us as we explore the current state of the memory market, and what it means for sourcing and engineering professionals in the long-term. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Issue is About More Than Just AI Demand and Spot Buys<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Demand for memory spot buy purchases has seen exponential increases Quarter-over-quarter (a 70.56% increase according to Supplyframe Commodity IQ) due to AI infrastructure buildout. This is an extraordinary surge, reflecting a combination of AI infrastructure procurement and safety stocking behavior from OEMs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problems run deeper than just surging demand, however. All of these demand spikes are also influencing pricing. Current forecasts from Supplyframe Commodity IQ predict a 30-50% in DDR5 prices through mid-2026. HBM3e prices are also rising an additional 20% YoY as NVIDIA H200 and next-gen ASIC demand increases as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, DDR DRAM spot buy activity is 44 times higher than normal levels. This is a result of DRAM manufacturers moving production to HBM to serve the growing AI demand, leading to further shortages. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other side of the equation, of course, is the wafer intensity needed to build high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for accelerators and AI servers. HBM has quickly become one of the industry\u2019s most profitable categories, which means that capacity is being allocated accordingly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is this important? Because developments like this shift the broader discussion away from short-lived shortages and into structural memory constraints that could last for years. Companies like SK hynix and others are working to add capacity, but it\u2019s going to take time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, other companies like Samsung are pushing for longer supply agreements amidst rising DRAM and NAND costs. All of this points to an issue that will be with for much longer than a few quarters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, new fabs have lead times of between 3 and 5 years before they can contribute to supply. The other issue, of course, is that AI demand is not linear. Instead, it\u2019s compounding. Finally, memory suppliers are prioritizing HBM over DRAM and trying to avoid oversupply mistakes from past shortages. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

DRAM ASP pricing is 13 times higher than it was in 2020, further illustrating thr need for teams to mitigate pricing risk and to choose carefully when sourcing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taken together, it\u2019s a perfect storm that results in less supply for non-AI applications even if the total capacity grows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Sourcing and Procurement Teams can Do <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

For sourcing and procurement teams, the first order of business should be to reduce uncertainty and improve decision confidence. Here\u2019s what that looks like in practice: <\/p>\n\n\n\n