{"id":7215,"date":"2024-10-08T20:48:17","date_gmt":"2024-10-08T19:48:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/intelligence.supplyframe.com\/?p=7215"},"modified":"2024-10-08T20:51:47","modified_gmt":"2024-10-08T19:51:47","slug":"proposed-prohibitions-chinese-auto-hardware","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/intelligence.supplyframe.com\/cs\/proposed-prohibitions-chinese-auto-hardware\/","title":{"rendered":"A Ban Too Far? Proposed U.S. Prohibitions on Chinese Auto Hardware Face Challenges"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><style type=\"text\/css\">td {border: 1px solid #cccccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}<\/style><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">The U.S. Department of Commerce\u2019s proposed ban on Chinese hardware in automobiles is likely to face daunting implementation obstacles due to the complexity and interconnectedness of the global motor vehicle supply chain. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">The ban calls for prohibiting Chinese-made hardware and software in motor vehicles with built-in communications, including those with internet, Bluetooth, navigation, autonomous driving, or similar connectivity beyond the car itself.  <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">The policy was spurred by concerns within the Biden administration that Chinese companies could collect data on Americans and even manipulate connected cars.&nbsp;With details scarce, the ban raises several uncertainties. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\"> The sweeping nature of the policy could result in the complete stoppage of sales of any Chinese-made automobile in the U.S., including both internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and electric vehicles (EVs). It is unknown if brands like Volvo and its sister EV maker Polestar, majority-owned by China-based Geely Auto (Zhejiang Geely Holding Group), will be impacted. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">Similarly, it is uncertain whether a vehicle ban would impact vehicles that are not Chinese brands but assembled in China; GM and Ford assemble autos in China.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">Finally, the definition of \u201chardware\u201d will be vital as it relates to the ban \u2013 for example, does the term encompass upstream raw materials and manufacturing? <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">Reportedly, the ban on Chinese software would take effect with 2027 model-year vehicles, and hardware prohibitions would be effective with 2029 and 2030 model-year vehicles. As a result, even employing a single electronic component (e.g., a microcontroller or analog converter) will require detailed qualification by an automaker, which often takes two or more years to complete. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">Automotive systems and electronic components do not typically have \u2018drop-in\u2019 replacements, meaning they are not interchangeable or easily replaceable. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">It should be noted that in the U.S. and Canada, an automotive model year is not the year of production (e.g., 2025 models have been offered for sale since June from some automakers). As a result, if the reported model-year timeframes become effective, automotive OEMs and suppliers will likely be unable to meet at least some of the measure\u2019s hardware restrictions. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-electronics-supply-chain-realities-raise-obstacles\">Electronics Supply Chain Realities Raise Obstacles <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">From an electronic component and immediately adjacent commodity perspective, several factors may make the hardware ban difficult to implement, including<\/span>: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">The supply chain and manufacturing of electronic components, systems, and EV batteries are astoundingly complex.&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">Decoupling from China in semiconductor production is difficult today. Given the impact of various semiconductor manufacturing equipment exports into China, it may further challenge it, which led to its investment in expanding more mature (greater than 28-nanometer process nodes) semiconductor production. Moreover, it can be very challenging to determine precisely where a chip is initially produced, yet country-of-origin data and analytics are improving.&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">China has doubled down on more mature semiconductor manufacturing because of export controls and the steady, long-term demand from various end markets, including the automotive sector. <\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">Process nodes of 40 nanometers and larger are utilized to manufacture some of the most common components widely used in auto applications, including microcontrollers (up to 100 per vehicle), sensors (up to 120 per vehicle), and analog ICs. <\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">According to Supplyframe Commodity IQ analysis, analog ICs (produced on more mature semiconductor process nodes and numbering about 100 per vehicle) are poised to become again supply-constrained for autos due to limited production capacity on mature nodes as soon as 2025, and the expected 20% or more increase in the number of these ICs in automobiles in just a few years.&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">Some 90% of automotive-grade semiconductors (e.g., that can withstand high temperatures and have higher reliability standards) are manufactured with 40-nanometer and larger process nodes.&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">According to SEMI (a non-profit association), capital expenditures for global IC production at 40 nanometers and above are less than a quarter of the total. <\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">The average modern automobile includes about 1,400 ICs, and many are employed for sophisticated applications, such as advanced driver assistance systems and autonomous driving. <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-implications-for-component-buyers\">Implications for Component Buyers <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">In light of these challenges, it is likely that the hardware ban will be ineffective based on the current timeline and will likely have to be delayed to ensure compliance. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">U.S. buyers are striving to reduce their dependence on Chinese-made semiconductors, given the Biden administration\u2019s plan to hike the tariff rate on imported semiconductors to 50% in 2025, up from 25%. However, the proposed ban would add new urgency to the process of supply-chain decoupling.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">Under these circumstances, buyers are advised to redouble their efforts to diversify their supply base and seek alternative sources, such as domestic U.S. suppliers. The Biden administration is working to increase U.S. production of mature-node chips suitable for automotive applications, announcing a $1.6 billion effort to fund production. However, these plans will take years to come to fruition. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\" style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal;\">As a result, automotive buyers should keep an eye on the timeline for the ban\u2019s implementation and watch for potential changes. In the meantime, buyers should expect rising challenges in sourcing mature-node chips for automotive applications during the coming years. <\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. Department of Commerce\u2019s proposed ban on Chinese hardware in automobiles is likely to face daunting implementation obstacles due to the complexity and interconnectedness of the global motor vehicle supply chain. The ban calls for prohibiting Chinese-made hardware and software in motor vehicles with built-in communications, including those with internet, Bluetooth, navigation, autonomous driving, [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":7217,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[220,11,102,212],"tags":[184,47,288],"class_list":["post-7215","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commodity-iq","category-featured","category-resources","category-transportation-automotive","tag-commodity-iq","tag-industry-news","tag-iq-insider"],"blocksy_meta":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.3 (Yoast SEO v25.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Proposed Bans on Chinese Auto Hardware Face Challenges<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In this week&#039;s edition of IQ Insider, we explore the newly proposed prohibitions from the U.S. on Chinese auto hardware.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/intelligence.supplyframe.com\/cs\/proposed-prohibitions-chinese-auto-hardware\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Ban Too Far? 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